09 February 2009

Of the Fire of Oz

Citizens of the World,


"A Nation in Mourning" reads The Australian headline.

It saddens me to see the bush fires in Australia. When I was there, it occurred rather frequently although it wasn't this bad. More than a hundred have perished, and the final tally is yet to be confirmed as 31 fires are still ravaging the outback. The loss of lives not forgotten, seeing the beautiful bush reduced to ashes is devastating. I pray that this ends soon.


Item 1: "Jimmy Carter on the Middle East" by Storer H. Rowley

Wisdom:

- I was also hoping, without much expectation, that we would have a Mideast envoy this time that would look at both sides of the issue, and not just represent the Israeli side, and we have that in George Mitchell
- I've also gotten to know for the first time the top leaders in Hamas, both those who are in the politburo, those are the ultimate leaders, and also those who govern the Gaza area
- (Hamas) would accept any agreement that's negotiated between the Israelis and the Palestinians if it's submitted to a referendum in the West Bank and Gaza, and the Palestinians approve it - they would accept Israel's right to exist if that's in the agreement and so forth
- There's no way in the world that you can ever have peace in the Middle East without Hamas being deeply involved


Item 2: "Keynes Can't Help Us Now" by Niall Ferguson

Wisdom:

- Keynesian "multiplier effect" -- which holds that a dollar spent by the government begets more than a dollar's worth of additional economic output
- Western world is suffering a crisis of excessive indebtedness - household debt has reached 141% of disposable income in the United States and 177% in Britain - best-known names in American and European finance have liabilities 40, 60 or even 100 times the amount of their capital
- It will not be so easy for us to inflate away our debts - deflationary pressures unleashed by the financial crisis are too strong - consumer prices in the U.S. have been falling for three consecutive months
- What can be done:
i. Banks that are de facto insolvent need to be restructured, not nationalized
ii. Generalized conversion of American mortgages to lower interest rates and longer maturities


Item 3: "Shifting Horizons" by Gideon Rachman

Wisdom:

- Six themes emerge from writings of those who will shape foreign policy:
i. The war on terror needs to be reconsidered.
ii. The US must rethink its ideas both about power and about threats.
iii. America should intervene to prevent humanitarian disasters.
iv. Belief in the UN is firm.
v. Diplomacy is back in fashion.
vi.
Old Europe is back too.


Item 4: "More than Aid Money, Africa Needs Enterprise" by Jakaya Kikwete and Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Wisdom:

- Africa starting points for development:
i. small- and medium- sized enterprises (SMEs) offer the best opportunities for growth and employment - provide investment loans
ii. scale up market-based clean energy production in Africa - access to finance as well as advisory services, skills training, and support a good regulatory environment for small-scale energy production
iii. youth and employment - provide a new and innovative environment for young entrepreneurs, targeted risk capital, skills training, and advisory services


Item 5: "The Iranian Revolution was the Ultimate Passion Play" by Karen Armstrong

Wisdom:

- Shiaism is based on a passionate yearning for a divinely decreed justice that is never fully realised but remains a transcendent imperative
- Khomeini - Standing in his pulpit, with the Koran in one hand and the 1906 Constitution in the other, he repeatedly declared that the Shah had violated both by his dismissal of parliament, his wicked suppression of all opposition, his illegal use of torture, his callous neglect of the poor, and his craven subservience to the United States


Item 6: "Iran: A Nation Still Haunted by its Bloody past" by Robert Fisk

Wisdom:

- I padded round (the Shah of Iran's) libraries; leather-bound volumes of Voltaire, Verlaine, Flaubert, Plutarch, Goebbels, Shakespeare, Charles de Gaulle, Churchill and Coleridge. Abba Eban's My People was dedicated by the author to "His Imperial Majesty, the Shah of Shahs"
- Iran had become a necrocracy
- They had not forgotten how the CIA and MI6 destroyed Mohammed Mossadeq's democratically elected government in a coup in 1953 - Operation Ajax, the Americans called it (the British chose the more prosaic Operation Boot)
- Abolhassan Bani-Sadr became Iran's first elected president in 1979, but failed to maintain his authority against Ayatollah Khomeini. After 17 months he was impeached and fled to France where he still lives

02 February 2009

Of Pushtun Quagmire

Citizens of the World,


Item 1: "How al-Arabiya Got the Obama Interview" by Scott Macleod

Wisdom:

- As Melhem remembers it, "This man says, 'My name is so-and-so, and I'm either going to make your day or ruin your day. Would you like to chat with the President about 5 p.m. today?' I joked, 'I guess I can accommodate the President.'
- "There we were, two blues fanatics, sitting there talking about Muddy Waters,"


Item 2: "School Reform that Works" by Bill Gates

Wisdom:

- 2009 Annual Letter from Bill Gates
- Every year, 1 million kids drop out of high school. Only 71 percent of kids graduate from high school within four years
- we have made over $2 billion in grants - hope was that after a few years they would operate at the same cost per student as before, but they would have become much more effective
- The difficulty of the problem does not make it any less important to solve


Item 3: "The Game Changer" by George Soros

Wisdom:

- Lehman Brothers, the US investment bank, was allowed to go into bankruptcy without proper preparation. It was a game-changing event with catastrophic consequences
- Price of credit default swaps, a form of insurance against companies defaulting on debt, went through the roof as investors took cover
- Lehman was one of the main market-makers in commercial paper and a large issuer of these short-term obligations to boot - a run on money market funds was in full swing
- Credit default swaps played a critical role in Lehman’s demise:
i. There is an asymmetry in the risk/reward ratio between being long or short in the stock market - one can be more patient being long and wrong than being short and wrong - asymmetry serves to discourage the short-selling of stocks
ii. CDS market offers a convenient way of shorting bonds - Going short on bonds by buying a CDS contract carries limited risk but unlimited profit potential; by contrast, selling credit default swaps offers limited profits but practically unlimited risks
iii. Reflexivity - mispricing of financial instruments can affect the fundamentals that market prices are supposed to reflect
- Proper role of short-selling - gives markets greater depth and continuity, making them more resilient
- Credit default swaps - prevailing view is that they ought to be traded on regulated exchanges - they are toxic and should be used only by prescription
- Strength of the dollar was due not to people choosing to hold dollars but to their inability to maintain or roll over their dollar obligations
- Strength of the dollar, like the fever associated with sickness, was a measure of the disruption of the financial system


Item 4: "Time to Put Middle Class Front and Center" by Joe Biden

Taskforce for the Middle Class


Item 5: "The Case for Drilling in ANWR" by Sarah Palin

Wisdom:

- There is potential for prices to rebound as OPEC asserts its market power and as Russia disrupts needed natural gas to Europe for the second time in three years
- ANWR represents a huge, secure domestic supply that could help satisfy U.S. demand for more than 25 years


Item 6: "Obama's Oratory: Recalling the Sway of Sukarno" by Al Makin

Wisdom:

- Sukarno - "Mentally I talked with Thomas Jefferson, with whom I feel friendly and close because he told me all about the Declaration of Independence he wrote in 1776. I discussed George Washington's problems with him. I relived Paul Revere's ride. I deliberately looked for mistakes in the life of Abraham Lincoln so I could argue the points with him"


Item 7: "The Power of a Declaration" by Amartya Sen

Wisdom:

- The Universal Declaration of Human Rights made its contribution to practical reason and global politics in four distinct ways:
i. Human rights do not depend on legislation for recognition
ii. Instruments that can be used to pursue the ethics of human rights
iii. Included political, social and economic rights in various forms
iv. Universal coverage


Item 8: "An Open Letter -- From Pakistan -- to President Obama" by Imran Khan

Wisdom:

- First and foremost policy objective should be to restore the peace - can only be achieved through a serious and sustained dialogue with the militants and mitigation of their genuine grievances under the ambit of our constitution and law
- Pushtun quagmire