28 November 2011

1. "In the Arab World, It’s the Past vs. the Future" by Thomas L. Friedman - Syria is the keystone of the Levant. It borders and balances a variety of states, sects and ethnic groups. If civil war erupts there, every one of Syria’s neighbors will cultivate, and be cultivated by, different Syrian factions — Sunnis, Alawites, Kurds, Druse, Christians, pro-Iranians, pro-Hezbollahites, pro-Palestinians, pro-Saudis - The new Lexus-like values of “democracy,” “free elections,” “citizen rights” and “modernity” will have to compete with some very old Olive Tree ideas and passions. These include the age-old civil wars within Islam between Sunnis and Shiites, over who should dominate the faith, the heated struggle between Salafists and modernists over whether the 21st century should be embraced or rejected, as well as the ancient tribal and regional struggles playing out within each of these societies. Last, but not least, you have the struggle between the entrenched military/crony elites and the masses 2. "Cairo: Paris of the East?" by Walter Russell Mead - struggle between the protesters in Tahrir Square and the armed forces echoes political patterns that turned up over and over in the rich history of French revolutions and revolts from 1789 right up through 1968 - Tahrir rebles, like French revolutionary wannabes in the past must accomplish two tasks: the revolutionaries in Paris had to unite with the poor and the workers in the capital, and the capital had to win the allegiance of the rest of the country - In the first French Revolution the radical Jacobins and their allies in the poor Paris suburbs drove the conservative Girondins and their allies scattered across the country - conservative instincts of the provincial cities and the rural masses to keep the ‘progressives’ and the revolutionaries in check - Rooting its appeal in a religion that 90 percent or more of Egyptians profess, shunning the radicalism of even more fundamentalist ‘Salafis’, standing for the protection of property rights and sporting a longer track record than many of the newly active parties emerging from the recent turmoil, the Muslim Brotherhood looks like the safety play for many Egyptian voters - In 1789-92 the combination of hunger and crop failure in the countryside and ignorance about the dangers of revolutionary radicalism helped the most extreme forces of the revolutionary movement gain power in France - Something similar happened in Russia in 1917-18

15 August 2011

1. "Israel-Turkey relations and the silent revolution" by Oded Eran and Gallia Lindenstrauss

- resignations of the Turkish army heads bespeak the end of a process that has taken some years – i.e., the weakening of the Turkish military as a political player
- in the past, the Turkish military was the force that pushed for closer cooperation with Israel

Fifth July Two Thousand Eleven

1. "Should China be Contained" by Joseph Nye

- Pentagon’s East Asia Strategy Review in 1994, we rejected the idea of containment of China for two reasons. If we treated China as an enemy, we were guaranteeing an enemy in the future. If we treated China as a friend, we could not guarantee friendship, but we could at least keep open the possibility of more benign outcomes.
- Instead of containment, the strategy that the Clinton administration devised could be termed “integrate but hedge” – something like Ronald Reagan’s “trust but verify” approach to strategic agreements with the Soviets.
- In 1800, Asia represented half the world’s population and half the world’s economy. By 1900, the industrial revolution in Europe and North America drove down Asia’s share of global output to 20%. By the middle of this century, Asia should again represent half the world’s population and GDP


2. US Foreign Policy: In Praise of Nation-Building
- The most isolationist decade in the country's history — the 1930s — was followed by World War II. The "Come Home, America" isolationism of the 1970s was followed by the fall of South Vietnam, the genocide in Cambodia, the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In the 1990s, the post-Cold War desire to spend the "peace dividend" led the U.S. to turn a blind eye to the rising threat from Al Qaeda.
- Iran is going nuclear, Pakistan is turning against the West, North Korea is trying to export its destructive technology, turmoil is spreading across the Middle East, Al Qaeda is far from defeated and China's power is growing

24 June 2011

1. "Who takes us to war?" by Charles Krauthammer

- 1973 War Powers Resolution - President has 90-day period to retroactively ask Congress for approval to go to war

17 April 2011

1. "Something Real for a Change" by Walter Russell Mead

- The US and India share two paramount strategic concerns:
i. China might seek hegemony in Asia
ii. Islamic extremism will destabilize the Middle East and beyond
- Brazil achieved their independence bloodlessly when the son of the King of Portugal declined to return to the home country after Napoleon’s defeat allowed the exiled royals to go back to Lisbon. “I remain,” he said, and became the Emperor of Brazil. That empire ended bloodlessly sixty years later when his son peacefully abdicated and sailed away to Europe.
- Former president Lula was elected on his fourth try
- Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was tortured by a US backed military dictatorship as a young woman


2. "Is Multiculturalism Dead?" by Abdul Malik Gismar
- idea of multiculturalism became fashionable in Indonesia after the Reformasi in 1998
- the national language, Bahasa Indonesia, is a second language for most Indonesians