19 February 2012

1. "A Long March" - The Economist - Muslim Brotherhood - dominate politics in both Egypt and Tunisia, having captured nearly half of parliamentary seats in post-revolutionary elections - King Muhammad VI of Morocco has empowered his own country’s Brothers by appointing the head of their Justice and Development Party as prime minister - Their political arm in Jordan, the Islamic Action Front, has been the country’s strongest party for decades, playing the role of a loyal opposition. Their wing in Iraq, the Islamic Party, worked with both Saddam Hussein and the American occupiers after 2003. Branches in Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait and Yemen have maintained substantial parliamentary representation since the 1990s. The National Islamic Front, the Ikhwan’s political vehicle in Sudan, backed a military coup in 1989 and was rewarded with a slew of cabinet posts. Palestine’s Islamic Resistance Movement, better known by its Arabic acronym Hamas, grew out of a Brotherhood charity in the West Bank and Gaza which sought and obtained recognition from Israel in the 1970s. - the group’s General Guide, Muhammad Badeea - former professor of veterinary science - The head of Tunisia’s Brotherhood-linked Nahda Party, Rachid Ghannouchi, says he will tolerate both alcohol and bikinis in his country, and his government continues to license prostitution. The Libyan chapter next door vows to continue Colonel Muammar Qaddafi’s bans on all three. 2. "Medvedev's Foreign Policy: Period of Stabilization" by Fyodor Lukyanov - highlights of Medvedev’s foreign policy include the new European security architecture initiative launched during his visit to Germany in June 2008, a month after he assumed office, a five-day war with Georgia later that year, the subsequent statement on “the sphere of privileged interests” and the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. A gas war with Ukraine left part of Europe without heat in the middle of winter, but then Russia signed the “Gas for Fleet” agreement, under which it cut gas prices for Ukraine in return for an extension of the deployment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea

28 November 2011

1. "In the Arab World, It’s the Past vs. the Future" by Thomas L. Friedman - Syria is the keystone of the Levant. It borders and balances a variety of states, sects and ethnic groups. If civil war erupts there, every one of Syria’s neighbors will cultivate, and be cultivated by, different Syrian factions — Sunnis, Alawites, Kurds, Druse, Christians, pro-Iranians, pro-Hezbollahites, pro-Palestinians, pro-Saudis - The new Lexus-like values of “democracy,” “free elections,” “citizen rights” and “modernity” will have to compete with some very old Olive Tree ideas and passions. These include the age-old civil wars within Islam between Sunnis and Shiites, over who should dominate the faith, the heated struggle between Salafists and modernists over whether the 21st century should be embraced or rejected, as well as the ancient tribal and regional struggles playing out within each of these societies. Last, but not least, you have the struggle between the entrenched military/crony elites and the masses 2. "Cairo: Paris of the East?" by Walter Russell Mead - struggle between the protesters in Tahrir Square and the armed forces echoes political patterns that turned up over and over in the rich history of French revolutions and revolts from 1789 right up through 1968 - Tahrir rebles, like French revolutionary wannabes in the past must accomplish two tasks: the revolutionaries in Paris had to unite with the poor and the workers in the capital, and the capital had to win the allegiance of the rest of the country - In the first French Revolution the radical Jacobins and their allies in the poor Paris suburbs drove the conservative Girondins and their allies scattered across the country - conservative instincts of the provincial cities and the rural masses to keep the ‘progressives’ and the revolutionaries in check - Rooting its appeal in a religion that 90 percent or more of Egyptians profess, shunning the radicalism of even more fundamentalist ‘Salafis’, standing for the protection of property rights and sporting a longer track record than many of the newly active parties emerging from the recent turmoil, the Muslim Brotherhood looks like the safety play for many Egyptian voters - In 1789-92 the combination of hunger and crop failure in the countryside and ignorance about the dangers of revolutionary radicalism helped the most extreme forces of the revolutionary movement gain power in France - Something similar happened in Russia in 1917-18

15 August 2011

1. "Israel-Turkey relations and the silent revolution" by Oded Eran and Gallia Lindenstrauss

- resignations of the Turkish army heads bespeak the end of a process that has taken some years – i.e., the weakening of the Turkish military as a political player
- in the past, the Turkish military was the force that pushed for closer cooperation with Israel

Fifth July Two Thousand Eleven

1. "Should China be Contained" by Joseph Nye

- Pentagon’s East Asia Strategy Review in 1994, we rejected the idea of containment of China for two reasons. If we treated China as an enemy, we were guaranteeing an enemy in the future. If we treated China as a friend, we could not guarantee friendship, but we could at least keep open the possibility of more benign outcomes.
- Instead of containment, the strategy that the Clinton administration devised could be termed “integrate but hedge” – something like Ronald Reagan’s “trust but verify” approach to strategic agreements with the Soviets.
- In 1800, Asia represented half the world’s population and half the world’s economy. By 1900, the industrial revolution in Europe and North America drove down Asia’s share of global output to 20%. By the middle of this century, Asia should again represent half the world’s population and GDP


2. US Foreign Policy: In Praise of Nation-Building
- The most isolationist decade in the country's history — the 1930s — was followed by World War II. The "Come Home, America" isolationism of the 1970s was followed by the fall of South Vietnam, the genocide in Cambodia, the Iranian hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. In the 1990s, the post-Cold War desire to spend the "peace dividend" led the U.S. to turn a blind eye to the rising threat from Al Qaeda.
- Iran is going nuclear, Pakistan is turning against the West, North Korea is trying to export its destructive technology, turmoil is spreading across the Middle East, Al Qaeda is far from defeated and China's power is growing

24 June 2011

1. "Who takes us to war?" by Charles Krauthammer

- 1973 War Powers Resolution - President has 90-day period to retroactively ask Congress for approval to go to war

17 April 2011

1. "Something Real for a Change" by Walter Russell Mead

- The US and India share two paramount strategic concerns:
i. China might seek hegemony in Asia
ii. Islamic extremism will destabilize the Middle East and beyond
- Brazil achieved their independence bloodlessly when the son of the King of Portugal declined to return to the home country after Napoleon’s defeat allowed the exiled royals to go back to Lisbon. “I remain,” he said, and became the Emperor of Brazil. That empire ended bloodlessly sixty years later when his son peacefully abdicated and sailed away to Europe.
- Former president Lula was elected on his fourth try
- Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, was tortured by a US backed military dictatorship as a young woman


2. "Is Multiculturalism Dead?" by Abdul Malik Gismar
- idea of multiculturalism became fashionable in Indonesia after the Reformasi in 1998
- the national language, Bahasa Indonesia, is a second language for most Indonesians

23 December 2010

1. "PM Netanyahu’s Speech at the Globes Business Conference" by Benjamin Netanyahu

- 5 basic rules for successful economy:
1. don’t spend more than you make, don’t waste more than you earn.
2. there is money to be made in growing economies: investors, employees, managers – everyone takes risks, makes an effort and works to make a profit.
3. allow for innovation
4. appropriate infrastructure
5. encourage the possibility of doing business with the least amount of State intervention


2. "A Turkish German's truth: 'It's not us and them'" by Doug Sanders

- To ethnic Germans, he says: Forget the debate about culture; it’s over. Let’s talk about how to turn everyone living in Germany into a full citizen. To Turks, he says: Forget about Turkey. You’re German now, not part of a long-forgotten homeland’s diaspora. Start acting like it, learn the language and become citizens.

Tuesday, 23 November 2011

1. John Bolton:

"New START is myopic in focusing only on parity with Russia, because Washington has far broader global responsibilities for friends and allies under our nuclear umbrella that Moscow does."


2. Aryn Baker and Abigail Hauslohner / Kafr Shibin

"The government justifies the ban on the Brotherhood by arguing that religion has no role in Egyptian politics"

"The Islamic Medical Association, a Brotherhood-linked charity, operates 29 hospitals throughout the country, providing inexpensive but comprehensive services for poor Egyptians. In one such hospital in Cairo, visitors pay about $2 for a checkup. The facilities are sparse, but doctors say the practice is clean and the staff doesn't solicit bribes, unlike in the government hospitals."

"Egyptian intellectuals credit the Bush Administration with pushing for the democratic reforms that allowed multiparty elections."

""We are not asking you to impose democracy," says newspaper publisher Hisham Kassem. "We are asking you to stop imposing dictatorship.""

"When al-Qaeda threatened Egyptian Christians in early November, the Brotherhood condemned the threat"

"Spokesman Mohammed Morsy insists that the Islamists' main goals are purely domestic: "We want to have a Muslim state in Egypt — not in Ireland.""


3. David R. Francis

"One in 10 South Americans – about 38 million people – escaped poverty during the past decade. That's remarkable progress by any measure."

"In 2009, the US had more poor people than in any of the 51 years since poverty levels have been estimated"

"US still has a much lower poverty rate than South America (14.2 percent versus around 70 percent)"

"credit goes to democratic leftist governments that have vastly boosted social spending to help the poor"

"Brazil pushed up the minimum wage a real 65 percent in eight years, helping to raise the wages of tens of millions of workers, including many receiving more than minimum wage...Real income per person is up some 24 percent since 2000. Poverty has been halved since 2002; extreme poverty is down by 70 percent. Unemployment dropped from more than 11 percent to 6.7 percent"


4.Martin Regg Cohn

"A growing concern for the UNHCR: human smuggling in reverse. The agency frets that impatient Tamil refugees are trying to jump the queue back to Sri Lanka by undertaking risky journeys by boat."


5. Brahma Chellaney

"a bicameral national Parliament, 14 regional parliaments, a president and a civilian federal government, the country has a new flag, a new national anthem, a new capital and a new official name, with the "Union of Myanmar" tag giving way to the "Republic of the Union of Myanmar."

"sanctions policy lessons:
1. economic sanctions, even if justified, have produced the wrong political results
2. expansion of sanctions has not only further isolated Burma, but also made that country overly dependent on China
3. sanctions have hurt not their intended target — the military. sanctions have lowered the living conditions of ordinary Burmese and shut out liberalizing influences"

"seeds of democracy will not take root in a stunted economy"

Second January Two Thousand Ten

Item 1: "The Radical Legacy of 1979 " by Andrew Djerejian

- three events had dire consequences with which we live today:
i. overthrow of the shah of Iran by the Ayatollah Khomeini - Iran becomes a theocracy
ii. takeover of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, by a group of Islamic extremists - Saudi Arabia embraces the Wahhabis
iii. Soviet invasion of Afghanistan - invasion mobilized a whole generation of Muslims, and turned Afghanistan into a flashpoint in U.S.-Soviet relations

Sixth December Two Thousand Nine

Item 1: "Why Obama does not want a multipolar world order" by Zaki Laidi

- Power is currently expressed in terms of three assets:
i. material wealth, without which nothing is technically possible
ii. strategic power, which implies the capacity to project force to one’s periphery and beyond
iii. power instinct – that is, the will to weigh in on world affairs - through one’s ideas, capabilities or attractiveness.
- There are now four great economic centres of power: the US, Europe, China and Japan. They are very distantly followed by India, Brazil and Russia
- Europe is the only region in the world that refuses to increase military expenditure